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Above-average temperatures in northern Arizona are making winter weather wetter than normal.
According to data from the Natural Resource Conservation Service, snowwater equivalent measurements — which basically describe how wet and dense snowfall is — show that the recent snowfall in northern Arizona has been significantly heavier and wetter than usual. On the San Francisco Peaks, snowwater equivalence at the end of Wednesday was measured at 103% of the 30-year median. In Fort Valley, it was measured at 118%, near Williams was 183% and on Mormon Mountain snowwater equivalence was measured at a whopping 194%.
So why is this particular winter storm so wet?
It comes down to warmer air temperatures, said Carter Humphreys of the National Weather Service (NWS) station in Flagstaff. Warmer air freezes snow less effectively, allowing it to remain wet and dense rather than become light, fluffy powder. And through the course of the current storm, northern Arizona has stayed fairly warm.
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“At the Flagstaff airport on [Wednesday] our low overnight was 31 degrees Fahrenheit,” Humphreys reported. “Which is about 15 degrees above normal.”
Generally speaking, average temperatures in Flagstaff have climbed about .6 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 30 years, but that trend may not directly explain the current state of warm weather. It could have more to do with weather system dynamics and how storms draw in air mass from different regions.
Humphreys explained that as storm systems move across the country, they draw in air from surrounding regions. In Arizona’s case, storms are likely to draw warm air up from the south, near the Gulf of California and Mexico.
Large tree branches are seen scattered across roadways and sidewalks throughout Flagstaff Wednesday morning after a heavy, wet snow fell overnight.
“As opposed to the rest of the country where a lot of the air is coming in from Canada — which is going to be that drier, colder air,” Humphreys said. “The air mass regions for us and the rest of the country are kind of different.”
Which is why when areas in the Midwest and East are experiencing winter storms with lethally frigid temperatures, Arizona is sitting in above-average temperatures.
Snow remains in the forecast for the rest of the week, with NWS predicting a 60% chance of snow on New Year’s Eve and a 100% chance of snow on New Year’s Day. But there is a catch. The current trend of above-average air temperatures means precipitation could likely start as rain, then turn to snow when the sun goes down.
“Late Saturday night, early Sunday starts out as kind of rainy,” Humphreys said of the current forecast. “Then we transition over to snow.”
It’s hard to say exactly when or if this transition to snow will happen, but with high temperatures estimated at 42 degrees for Saturday, it might take a while for things too cool enough to produce true snow.
For those planning to engage in New Year’s revelry in Flagstaff, be prepared, you may get doused in more than champagne.
The National Guard went door to door in parts of Buffalo on Wednesday to check on people who lost power during the area’s deadliest winter storm in decades, and authorities faced the tragic possibility of finding more victims amid melting snow.Already, more than three dozen deaths have been reported in western New York from the blizzard that raged Friday and Saturday across much of the country, with Buffalo in its crosshairs.Carolyn Eubanks, who relied on an oxygen machine, collapsed after losing electricity at her Buffalo home during a time when emergency workers were unable to respond to calls, son Antwaine Parker told The Buffalo News.”She’s like, ‘I can’t go no further.’ I’m begging her, ‘Mom, just stand up.’ She fell in my arms and never spoke another word,” Parker told the newspaper.Parker and his stepbrother knocked on nearby doors, seeking help. They found it when a stranger, David Purdy, answered and helped them carry the 63-year-old Eubanks inside and try in vain to revive her. Purdy and his fiancee sheltered her body until first responders arrived the next day.”I done it as respectful as I could,” Purdy told The Buffalo News.Timothy Murphy, 27, died after snow covered a furnace and sent carbon monoxide into his Lockport home, the Niagara County sheriff’s office said. Monique Alexander, 52, was found buried in snow after going out in the storm for unclear reasons, her daughter told The Buffalo News.Anndel Taylor, 22, died in her car after it got stuck on her way home from work, her family told WSOC-TV.SEE MORE: With Warming, Snowbound Buffalo Braces To Find More DeadThe driving ban in New York’s second-most-populous city was lifted early Thursday, just after midnight.As the deep freeze eased into milder weather Wednesday and the number of lingering power outages dwindled, more than 600 National Guard members were sent to western New York, officials said.”We are fearful that there are individuals who may have perished, living alone, or people who are not doing well,” said Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz. The county encompasses Buffalo.One pair of National Guard troops, clipboard in hand, knocked on the door of a home as people nearby tried to dig their way to businesses on a major avenue in Buffalo.Twenty-five Guard teams were making such rounds Wednesday, spokesperson Eric Durr said by phone. He said troops had made some wellness checks previously but went out with a specific list of questions, including whether residents had food, water, electricity or any special health or medication concerns.”The idea is to get a sense of: What are the needs out there?” said Durr, who noted that troops were offering food and water.Buffalo Police Commissioner Joseph Gramaglia said officers from his and other agencies were searching for victims, sometimes using officers’ personal snowmobiles, trucks and other equipment.With the death toll already surpassing that of the area’s notorious Blizzard of 1977, local officials faced questions about the response to last week’s storm. They insisted they prepared, but that the weather was extraordinary even for a region prone to powerful winter storms.SEE MORE: Military Police Enforce Driving Ban In Snow-Stricken Buffalo”The city did everything that it could under historic blizzard conditions,” Mayor Byron Brown, a Democrat, said at a news conference.Enough snow remained that driving was still banned for most of Wednesday, and officials worked to clear storm drains and watched a forecast which calls for some rain later in the week. Erie County officials said they were preparing for the possibility of flooding and ice jams in local creeks.The National Weather Service said any flooding was expected to be minor.Gov. Kathy Hochul said Wednesday that the state is ready to deploy nearly 800,000 sandbags and more than 300 pumps and generators for flooding response efforts if needed.Buffalo Niagara International Airport reopened after a five-day closure, although many flights were canceled.Temperatures rose above 40 degrees in Buffalo on Wednesday and are expected to top 50 degrees on Friday with a chance for showers, according to the National Weather Service.While suburban roads and most major highways in the area reopened Tuesday, state and military police were assigned to enforce Buffalo’s driving ban. Poloncarz said the goal was to have at least one lane on every street open by Wednesday evening.It was tough going. Even on some of the city’s main streets, there were still cars buried in snow being towed to make way for snowplows.Erie County Undersheriff William Cooley said deputies helped people get to crucial medical appointments, such as dialysis.Police also reported looting at some stores during the storm. Several people were arrested.Additional reporting by The Associated Press.
Sean Golightly can be reached at [email protected].
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